Blog Archives

Winning the QMJHL Draft with Advanced Predictive Modeling

Can a numbers-based approach outdraft QMJHL teams? I spent the last year trying to build an advanced predictive model to see if this was possible. As a test, I did a re-draft of the 2013 draft, since the majority of those players finished their QMJHL careers this season. Using exclusively information that was available before the draft and without taking into consideration any subjective factors (scouting, interviews, team needs, etc.), my model outdrafted every single team in the 2013 draft in terms of drafted player value (APV)

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Posted in APV Analysis, Draft Analysis

The Relative Value of Drafting Left-shooting vs. Right-shooting Defencemen in the Q

All else equal, defencemen in the QMJHL who shoot right are more valuable than those who shoot left. I looked at every defenceman who was drafted in the Q from 2004 to 2012, and there is a tangible difference between left-shooting and right-shooting defencemen.

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Posted in Draft Analysis, Strategy Analysis

Assessing the Final Round of the 2017 Playoffs

The final round of the QMJHL playoffs begins tonight with the top seeded Saint John Sea Dogs facing off against the Blainville-Boisbriand Armada. The Sea Dogs finished 1st in the regular season as well as 1st in my SRS rankings. On the other hand, the Armada finished 5th in the regular season and 5th in my SRS rankings. Despite this gap, it should be a very close final

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Posted in Draft Analysis, SRS Analysis

What’s at stake in the 2017 QMJHL draft lottery? A look at the relative value of a draft pick

The 2017 QMJHL draft lottery will be taking place on Thursday afternoon with a brand new draft format. For the first time, the five teams at the bottom of the standings will get an opportunity to win the 1st overall pick. While all participating teams obviously want to win, what kind of an impact does winning the draft lottery ultimately make? According to my analysis of relative draft pick value, the difference between the top 5 picks is significant.

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Posted in Draft Analysis
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