Blog Archives

Winning the QMJHL Draft with Advanced Predictive Modeling

Can a numbers-based approach outdraft QMJHL teams? I spent the last year trying to build an advanced predictive model to see if this was possible. As a test, I did a re-draft of the 2013 draft, since the majority of those players finished their QMJHL careers this season. Using exclusively information that was available before the draft and without taking into consideration any subjective factors (scouting, interviews, team needs, etc.), my model outdrafted every single team in the 2013 draft in terms of drafted player value (APV)

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Posted in APV Analysis, Draft Analysis

Introducing APV – A Single-number Player Evaluation Metric

APV scores go from 0 (negligible positive value) to close to 1000, with the league average being 100. Any player with a score above 100 is generally considered “above average”, and less than 100 “below average”.

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Posted in APV Analysis

The Relative Value of Drafting Left-shooting vs. Right-shooting Defencemen in the Q

All else equal, defencemen in the QMJHL who shoot right are more valuable than those who shoot left. I looked at every defenceman who was drafted in the Q from 2004 to 2012, and there is a tangible difference between left-shooting and right-shooting defencemen.

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Posted in Draft Analysis, Strategy Analysis

Assessing the Final Round of the 2017 Playoffs

The final round of the QMJHL playoffs begins tonight with the top seeded Saint John Sea Dogs facing off against the Blainville-Boisbriand Armada. The Sea Dogs finished 1st in the regular season as well as 1st in my SRS rankings. On the other hand, the Armada finished 5th in the regular season and 5th in my SRS rankings. Despite this gap, it should be a very close final

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Posted in Draft Analysis, SRS Analysis

Assessing the Third Round Matchups in the 2017 Playoffs

The 2017 QMJHL playoff semi-finals begin tonight as the quest for the President’s Cup has been narrowed down to four teams. The 2nd round featured two sweeps as well as two 7-game series.

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Posted in SRS Analysis

Should Goalies Play Back-to-back Games in the QMJHL?

Teams should be expecting a slight decline in a goalie’s performance in the 2nd game of a back-to-back. However, the fatigue effect is minimal so other considerations like recent form, injury proneness, and big game experience could be more important.

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Posted in Strategy Analysis

Assessing the Second Round Matchups in the 2017 Playoffs

The 2nd round of the 2017 QMJHL playoffs begins tomorrow and with it will come much more competitive matchups. The 1st round featured 5 sweeps and only one game 7, but the 2nd round should offer some thrilling series. My 1st round predictions went 7 for 8, with 6 series being predicted in the correct “competitiveness tier”.

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Posted in SRS Analysis

What’s at stake in the 2017 QMJHL draft lottery? A look at the relative value of a draft pick

The 2017 QMJHL draft lottery will be taking place on Thursday afternoon with a brand new draft format. For the first time, the five teams at the bottom of the standings will get an opportunity to win the 1st overall pick. While all participating teams obviously want to win, what kind of an impact does winning the draft lottery ultimately make? According to my analysis of relative draft pick value, the difference between the top 5 picks is significant.

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Posted in Draft Analysis

Couturier (Bat) and Hulton (Cha) should have definitely been nominated for GM of the Year

Based on my SRS split-season analysis, Acadie-Bathurst Titan GM Sylvain Couturier and Charlottetown Islanders GM Jim Hulton definitely deserved to be nominated for GM of the Year.

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Posted in SRS Analysis, Trade Analysis

Assessing the First Round Matchups in the 2017 Playoffs

Historically, the first round of the QMJHL playoffs have featured some very lopsided results, along with the occasional upset. This year’s matchups, according to my SRS team rankings, all give the top seed a noted advantage. However, the differences between

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Posted in SRS Analysis
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