Blog Archives

Winning the QMJHL Draft with Advanced Predictive Modeling

Can a numbers-based approach outdraft QMJHL teams? I spent the last year trying to build an advanced predictive model to see if this was possible. As a test, I did a re-draft of the 2013 draft, since the majority of those players finished their QMJHL careers this season. Using exclusively information that was available before the draft and without taking into consideration any subjective factors (scouting, interviews, team needs, etc.), my model outdrafted every single team in the 2013 draft in terms of drafted player value (APV)

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Posted in APV Analysis, Draft Analysis

Introducing APV – A Single-number Player Evaluation Metric

APV scores go from 0 (negligible positive value) to close to 1000, with the league average being 100. Any player with a score above 100 is generally considered “above average”, and less than 100 “below average”.

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Posted in APV Analysis

The Relative Value of Drafting Left-shooting vs. Right-shooting Defencemen in the Q

All else equal, defencemen in the QMJHL who shoot right are more valuable than those who shoot left. I looked at every defenceman who was drafted in the Q from 2004 to 2012, and there is a tangible difference between left-shooting and right-shooting defencemen.

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Posted in Draft Analysis, Strategy Analysis

Should Goalies Play Back-to-back Games in the QMJHL?

Teams should be expecting a slight decline in a goalie’s performance in the 2nd game of a back-to-back. However, the fatigue effect is minimal so other considerations like recent form, injury proneness, and big game experience could be more important.

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Posted in Strategy Analysis
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